Oil reserves not running out anytime soon
Josh Brownlow
Issue date: 9/12/07 Section: Opinions
Oil is a nonrenewable resource. Whatever we burn today for use as energy will be unavailable for future generations.
Though this is a fact, it has the tendency to spawn catastrophic predictions based on fear rather than factual evidence. For more than 150 years there has been a steady stream of scientists claiming our oil supply is running out, and we have only a few years left. The world will in actuality never run completely out of oil; the problem is people believe it will.
The rising anxiety concerning high gas prices has caused a shift in public priorities about the importance of exploring new energy - 52 percent of Americans favor giving tax cuts to energy companies to explore for more oil, according to the Pew Research Center.
The history of oil is really quite surprising and serves as the ultimate distinction for the grassroots of this problem and its future. Before 1859, when the very first oil well was drilled in Pennsylvania, our petroleum supplies were limited to the masses of crude oil that oozed to the surface.
Four years earlier, in 1855, an advertisement for Kier's Rock Oil advised consumers to " ... hurry, before this wonderful product is depleted from Nature's laboratory." Even more astonishing, in 1874, a geologist in Pennsylvania declared the United States only had four years left before it ran out of enough oil for kerosene lamps.
Predictions about oil supplies running out have plagued the United States for more than 150 years. The history of these radical predictions is evidently quite vast; most of the harbingers who influence the masses ignore the history of reserves and production coupled with technology.
In the 1920s, the U.S. Geological Survey announced that worldwide, only 60 billion barrels of oil existed. Thirty years later, the estimation was 10 times that: 600 billion barrels of oil. In 1980, the estimation was increased again to 2 trillion,000 billion barrels of oil, altogether meeting today's estimation of 3 trillion barrels.
Though this is a fact, it has the tendency to spawn catastrophic predictions based on fear rather than factual evidence. For more than 150 years there has been a steady stream of scientists claiming our oil supply is running out, and we have only a few years left. The world will in actuality never run completely out of oil; the problem is people believe it will.
The rising anxiety concerning high gas prices has caused a shift in public priorities about the importance of exploring new energy - 52 percent of Americans favor giving tax cuts to energy companies to explore for more oil, according to the Pew Research Center.
The history of oil is really quite surprising and serves as the ultimate distinction for the grassroots of this problem and its future. Before 1859, when the very first oil well was drilled in Pennsylvania, our petroleum supplies were limited to the masses of crude oil that oozed to the surface.
Four years earlier, in 1855, an advertisement for Kier's Rock Oil advised consumers to " ... hurry, before this wonderful product is depleted from Nature's laboratory." Even more astonishing, in 1874, a geologist in Pennsylvania declared the United States only had four years left before it ran out of enough oil for kerosene lamps.
Predictions about oil supplies running out have plagued the United States for more than 150 years. The history of these radical predictions is evidently quite vast; most of the harbingers who influence the masses ignore the history of reserves and production coupled with technology.
In the 1920s, the U.S. Geological Survey announced that worldwide, only 60 billion barrels of oil existed. Thirty years later, the estimation was 10 times that: 600 billion barrels of oil. In 1980, the estimation was increased again to 2 trillion,000 billion barrels of oil, altogether meeting today's estimation of 3 trillion barrels.
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Viewing Comments 1 - 10 of 20
Scott
posted 9/11/07 @ 10:08 PM CST
What this fails to account for is the cost to drill for these oil reserves. Sure there might be a small pocket of oil, but it would not be profitable to set up a rig and drill for the oil. (Continued…)
George Gant
posted 9/11/07 @ 11:06 PM CST
Since Josh is so expert in making Fairy Tales sound plausible (virutally infinite supplies, etc.), may I suggest that he read the story about the boy who cried wolf, and learn the moral of that story. (Continued…)
Dave Hodgson
posted 9/12/07 @ 5:38 AM CST
There will always be oil reserves as there will always be oil in the ground. The reason being, quite a bit of it will be too expensive or too difficult to extract. (Continued…)
greg
posted 9/12/07 @ 9:27 AM CST
Out of the 90 countries that produce oil, 60 have entered into irreversible decline. How do you explain that???
Lou Grinzo
posted 9/12/07 @ 9:54 AM CST
"As such, the price of gasoline today is significantly cheaper than the previous 150 years - if inflation is accounted for."
Sorry, that one's not even close to being right. (Continued…)
Zoltan
posted 9/12/07 @ 9:54 AM CST
Josh,
it is not "running out of oil" that we should fear, but irreversible decline in production, termed "peak oil". Existing, mature fields are declining much faster than new, difficult-to-drill fields can be explored. (Continued…)
Imago
posted 9/12/07 @ 10:00 AM CST
"The size of the tap is more relevant than the size of the tank"
All is about flows: crude production flow, refining flow and of course consumption flow. (Continued…)
riley
posted 9/12/07 @ 10:04 AM CST
Total liquid oil production peaked in June of 2006. It's dropped every month since then. As Zoltan posted, it's the peak that's the problem. We will never produce more oil than we have now. (Continued…)
Pythor Sehn
posted 9/12/07 @ 10:13 AM CST
It is the peaking of global oil production, not reserves or when oil will "run out" that is of critical concern to our future. Focusing on when oil will run out is basically creating a straw man arguement, or making a point that no one else is arguing anymore. (Continued…)
Steve
posted 9/12/07 @ 12:15 PM CST
We will never run out of oil. This is true. As oil becomes more difficult to find, the basic costs of production will rise until oil becomes so expensive that it necessitates switching to alternatives. (Continued…)
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